Tuesday, April 13, 2010


My running progression.

I though this interesting, never really looked at this, like this before but it shows a neat progression of faster race times since I started running. Of course you'd expect improvement, but what interests me is can the past give a good indication of future progress? What do you reckon? I'm thinking that I will have plateaus, like I'm in now and the PBs will start to come harder but I'm going to get new faster times right up until my early 50s (45 now almost 46). Rick has shown us it's possible.

I reckon I can peak around 48 years old, in 2012. Any idea what times I could realistically expect in 2011 and 2012. My last race gave me pause as it hurt a lot more than it should have but I've come to think that if one is mentally strong, with a totally belief in their ability, all it will take is a little time and a good base to enable fantastic times to manifest themselves. Anyway, I'd be interested in what you think. Am I on the right track or do I have my "hand on it?"

1.39.32 Half
45.17 10K
1.35.08 Half
4.05.47 Full
40.31 10K
1.30.36 Half
3.27.57 Full
40.10 10K
1.28.51 Half
3.24.40 Full
39.55 10K
1.31.12 Half
3.17.56 Full
19.10 5K
39.16 10K
1.22.56 Half
3.03.06 Full
17.08 5K
35.38 10K
1.19.23 Half
2.45.11 Full
35.42 10K
1.18.50 Half
??? Full
??? 5K
??? 10K
??? Half
??? Full
??? 5K
??? 10K
??? Half
??? Full

How do I get people to comment on my blog? A bit of "sugar" may help?


  1. Well, I can keep up until about 2008, and from then on I can only watch you steam ahead.

    Don't you dare stop the blog - I need to know how to speed up in your 40s!

  2. I've known a few runners set new P.B.'s over the marathon at 50!
    I doubt I'll ever break my short distance P.B.s now 4 miles 21.31 and 5 miles 27.11, but over longer distances i think it's still possible to improve with smart training and then i could always go the ultra route and set new p.b.'s for many years to come!
    as for you scott i think you will have quite a few more years of improvement.
    as far as getting more comments, well you need lots of atractive young ladies featured in your blog!!!

  3. Someone once said you cannot run a PB in your 60s but I didn't believe it.

  4. That's a good tip Speedygeoff. I'll wait until my 60s for my next PB ;)

    Impressive progression thus far Scott. Yes, early 50s. Maybe 53 for outright PBs.

    My improvement curve from 24 was parabolic then with a few jumps until 35. When I started running I thought it would be linear, and from my rapid improvement extrapolated a 2:10 marathon at age 30 ;)

    I wouldn't neglect the speed side of things and the 5k/10k PBs. There's a definite relationship between short distance speed and marathon speed. If you can get down to 16 for 5k then 2:30 for the full is possible. Having said that, don't set limits!

  5. Interesting progression. Also very interesting that your short distance PB's dropped a while before the half and full, with full marathon the one that lagged. A consequence of lots of k's over years building a really good endurance base?

    I hope that I follow the same progression!

    As for the potential - I think if you keep up the training without major injury you've got a few years of improvement yet, if in smaller increments.

  6. For the pig iron of it I put your HM times into Excel and used a few trend lines to project forward 2 years (2012) and projected times from 1:19:02 (power series) to 1:12:35 (linear series - obviously a bit optimistic as a linear progression would take you to a HM WR of 58:11 by 2017). What's distorting the trend is your relative poor result in 2007. If I take this out the power series projection would give you a 2012 HM of 1:17:46 and the log projection 1:17:22. So I'll go with somewhere between these 2 times. You'd swear I know what i'm talking about.

  7. 'NO LIMITS'
    If your looking for a KEY to improving then the answer has to be;
    Change your perceptions!!!
    Don't limit yourself by thinking of what might be possible, go out and do what is impossible!!!
    As the advert says "impossible is nothing"

  8. Scott,
    I now have more information on how to do 'FRAGMENTED ' breathing for improved performance on my blog site

  9. Sugar totally helps with blog commenting. Actually you have to comment to get comments. You gotta read to be read. That's how the blog world works, initially. Then you'll build up your readers. :)

    BTW, Old Wonky is what I call my tendinitis prone ankle. It's been twinging lately so I'm keeping an eye on it. (I like to give objects personality.)

  10. Scott, My earlier predictions may be a bit conservtive as they give a 2010 HM of 1:19:50 (that's the beauty of averaging curves). So I reckon you could go as low as 1:16 if the gods are smiling down on you. Alternatively you could defy logic as you have done once or twice in the past.