Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Xmas marathon KAKOGAWA

I’ll run my next full marathon in a week from today, The Kakogawa marathon on Dec 23rd, it is being held next Wednesday a public holiday here.

I’m very excited about this one as I feel I’ve put in a good block of training and finally feel that I’m entering a race where I have given myself a good chance of success. I reckon that I’ve left little to chance this time and I think that if all goes well I will have a result that is pretty close to reflecting my true ability. This “true ability” is nearing my “career goal” a goal I’m loathed to share lest I’d be seen as a braggart ;)

I’m defining success in this race the following ways.
Challenging yet achievable: Sub 2:45
Not too shabby: Sub 2:50
Happy but wondering why I couldn’t go faster: PB Sub 2:56
Anything over 3hrs would be disappointing but unless I spend half of the race convulsing on the road covered in my own vomit and feces I’m not going to be too worried as there is always another marathon, as they say.

While I don’t want to risk the wrath of that God that likes to turn our best plans into a punch line, I think that it is better for me to have some confidence and hope that helps carry me through on top of the base I’ve built.

Here is a list of why I dare to dream this time.
And why I think I’ll, at least, do better than my last marathon.

I’m lighter. 2kgs
I’m fitter. More mileage.
I’m faster! Pbs at lesser distances going in.
I’m as strong or stronger. No injuries going in.
It’ll be cooler! About 12 degrees cooler and low humidity. Expecting 5 degrees.
I’ll be better tapered and peaking. Did preparation to peak for this race.
I’ll have less pressure/ I’ll be more relaxed now that the sub 3 monkey is off my back.
I’ll be better prepared mentally and as Central Governor has been talked to better prepared for the pain to come.
I know the course, it’s just as fast and flat as Townsville (wind may be an issue though).

I’m happy to hear any ideas on what time you think is possible for me based on my preparations, a worst case or best case would be interesting to hear, and don’t be soft on me if you think I’m dreaming and I’m not ready for these kinds of times please tell me. I can take it.

Here are my weekly Ks for the last 12 weeks: 103, 146, 167, 129, 190, 119, 160, 174, 182, 135, 114, 80K: The 80Ks will be my last weeks taper. The 129K and 119 weeks were a little less as I raced those weeks (I believed it was worth it as I could rest up a little and PB these races the same time).

Anyway, what do you reckon?

Just one thing worries me, that is, this nagging feeling that I might be too old for all of this and that I might not have the talent, I know that others, much older, have done such times but I’m still not 100% sure that I can count myself amongst them. It’s a worry but one that I’m happy to say replaces my former worries about life after death and genital warts.


  1. One of my friends set a marathon p.b. at 50, running 2.45.
    so age is not a worry, as for giving you a time i think you could run, well I would not like to limit you with such thoughts, all I will say is the 2 k weight lose and your faster p.n.s at shorter races should make you a whole lot faster, just don't blow it at the start by going off at a silly pace.
    p.s. hope you don't finish covered in crap, it just wouldn't look good on the finish photo \\;]
    Happy running

  2. Weight (kg) Predicted time Time difference
    61 kg 02:46:46 -09:14
    62 kg 02:49:05 -06:55
    63 kg 02:51:24 -04:36
    64 kg 02:53:42 -02:18
    65 kg 02:56:00
    66 kg 02:58:17 02:17
    67 kg 03:00:34 04:34
    68 kg 03:02:51 06:51
    69 kg 03:05:07 09:0

  3. http://www.runningforfitness.org/calc/weighteffect.php?metres=42195&hr=2&min=56&sec=0&weight=65&weightunits=kg&Submit=Calculate

  4. I reckon it'll be a genital wart-free marathon ;)

    You should be confident Scott - excellent training, 'enough' talent, not too old, good course and cool weather. If you run a Criniti-style race (even or neg splits) - 2:43:52.

    If you 'stuff up' (e.g. 78 for the first half) - 2:48:08 ;) Try and find a sufficiently tall and fast Japanese female to run with.

  5. That's some solid training. You don't age that quickly - a new PB should be waiting for you at the finish line.

    Good Luck!

  6. You certainly deserve a new PB with that training and dedicated life style. I have no idea what time you are capable of in your current state but age has nothing to do with it. Just don't put too much pressure on yourself leading up to the race. Save that for the last 10k.

    All the best and may you run to your potential.

  7. All those pluses lined up look good to me. Anyway, anyone over the age of 40 who can run a 190k week and live to laugh about it is ready for a good marathon. Sure, go for your goal...without going out too fast.

  8. Sorry, been on a small island with no internet! (so, no, it wasn't your crass jokes - they're part of the reason to read!)

    I just don't know Scott. You have madee it a LONG way past my guessing abilities. All I know is that you'll do a time that will be stunning, of that I have no doubt.

    I'm not going to say "good luck" because your prep is way past the need for luck, so have fun!

  9. You certainly seem to have done the distance. What about speed? I think your Marathon time is to some extent related to your 10Km time. Based on no research whatsoever I would say you would need to be running around 35 dead for 10Km to run 2.45.
    Certainly age should not be a barrier.
    Good luck. Looking forward to reading your race report.