Xmas marathon KAKOGAWA

I’ll run my next full marathon in a week from today, The Kakogawa marathon on Dec 23rd, it is being held next Wednesday a public holiday here.

I’m very excited about this one as I feel I’ve put in a good block of training and finally feel that I’m entering a race where I have given myself a good chance of success. I reckon that I’ve left little to chance this time and I think that if all goes well I will have a result that is pretty close to reflecting my true ability. This “true ability” is nearing my “career goal” a goal I’m loathed to share lest I’d be seen as a braggart ;)

I’m defining success in this race the following ways.
Challenging yet achievable: Sub 2:45
Not too shabby: Sub 2:50
Happy but wondering why I couldn’t go faster: PB Sub 2:56
Anything over 3hrs would be disappointing but unless I spend half of the race convulsing on the road covered in my own vomit and feces I’m not going to be too worried as there is always another marathon, as they say.

While I don’t want to risk the wrath of that God that likes to turn our best plans into a punch line, I think that it is better for me to have some confidence and hope that helps carry me through on top of the base I’ve built.

Here is a list of why I dare to dream this time.
And why I think I’ll, at least, do better than my last marathon.

I’m lighter. 2kgs
I’m fitter. More mileage.
I’m faster! Pbs at lesser distances going in.
I’m as strong or stronger. No injuries going in.
It’ll be cooler! About 12 degrees cooler and low humidity. Expecting 5 degrees.
I’ll be better tapered and peaking. Did preparation to peak for this race.
I’ll have less pressure/ I’ll be more relaxed now that the sub 3 monkey is off my back.
I’ll be better prepared mentally and as Central Governor has been talked to better prepared for the pain to come.
I know the course, it’s just as fast and flat as Townsville (wind may be an issue though).

I’m happy to hear any ideas on what time you think is possible for me based on my preparations, a worst case or best case would be interesting to hear, and don’t be soft on me if you think I’m dreaming and I’m not ready for these kinds of times please tell me. I can take it.

Here are my weekly Ks for the last 12 weeks: 103, 146, 167, 129, 190, 119, 160, 174, 182, 135, 114, 80K: The 80Ks will be my last weeks taper. The 129K and 119 weeks were a little less as I raced those weeks (I believed it was worth it as I could rest up a little and PB these races the same time).

Anyway, what do you reckon?

Just one thing worries me, that is, this nagging feeling that I might be too old for all of this and that I might not have the talent, I know that others, much older, have done such times but I’m still not 100% sure that I can count myself amongst them. It’s a worry but one that I’m happy to say replaces my former worries about life after death and genital warts.